“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain
My name is Jay Ferguson and I am one of the owners of the real estate division of Taylor Made Deep Creek Vacations & Sales. I am entering my 21st year in the real estate business here in Garrett County and at Deep Creek Lake. If you are interested, you can click here find out more about me personally and my background.
I will be writing a monthly blog post about our local real estate market, sharing & interpreting statistics and offering some insights into the market as a whole…as I see it. These are my personal thoughts and musings about the market in general and are not intended as anything more specific. And, to be clear, I am an optimistic, glass half-full kind of guy.
Lastly, every stat I reference is based on the official stats published by Bright MLS on or around the 15th of each month. My plan is to give you straightforward stats coupled with my analysis from the front lines and let you interpret what you read in your own way. Contact me for a candid conversation about the real estate market and how it may apply to your situation.
Late April snow can’t cool off the market
We’ve had a string of warm weather interrupted by two days of snow. We always have a flurry or two that flies by to break up a warm stretch of spring weather, but in this case, the snow is melting as soon as it hits the ground. The ground is literally so warm here that the snow doesn’t stand a chance, apparently. What a great segue into the fire-breathing dragon that is the Deep Creek Lake real estate market.
The Covid Market One Year Anniversary
What a difference a year makes. Boats, cars, homes, lumber….all at crazy high prices now, if you can even get one. Who on Earth could have predicted this? I know one year ago I was worried there would be NO homes sales and that the lockdown would spiral into a recession. But at the one year anniversary of the lockdowns, here is what happened in Garrett County and Deep Creek Lake:
- The median sold price was up 86% from last year. It was $210,000 in March 2020, now its $390,000
- There were 726 homes sold from March 2020 – March 2021. That’s essentially two years worth of homes in Garrett County.
- Homes are selling 90 days faster on average.
Nobody could have predicted this a year ago. And, its still going. Looking at the chart below, I don’t recall seeing so many ‘green’ positive indicators:
- There were 82 new listings in March 2021. Up from last month (44%). That’s also higher (60%) than last year (1st month of Covid).
- Pending sales (homes that went under contract) were up 40% when compared to last month. Up 74% from last year.
- Closed sales (homes that actually sold) were up 89% when compared to last month and up 80% from last year.
- The total number of active listings for sale is 81. The five year average for this month is 266 homes for sale.
- The average sold to original listing price (OLP) ratio was 97%, this is down 2% from last month and up nearly 1% from last year.
- The median sold price was up 15% last month and up 86% from last year.
- The average days on market (DOM) dropped to 63 DOM versus 91 last month. This is down from 134 last year.
Inventory slowly climbing, as are the prices
As I type this sentence, we are now at 101 homes for sale in Garrett County and climbing. We are also at 64 pending sales, so as homes get listed, they are still selling very quickly. Some lakefront homes are listing for double what they were worth last year, you also see more and more $2 million and now even $3 million dollar homes. We are also seeing some price reductions – homes that came on at very aggressive prices and are pumping the brakes a little bit. I take this as a good sign – there are some prices nobody is willing to pay and this how the market should begin to stabilize a bit.
Questions about the market or a specific situation? Whether you are buying or selling, I can put my experience to work for you! Contact me anytime for a free market analysis of any property you may be interested in purchasing or selling!
301-501-0420 – cell